The future……..is it too uncertain??

“The future’s uncertain and the end is always near”

The uncertainty of future has always baffled and made me wonder. This unpredictability is both amusing and disturbing. It does encourage the element of surprise that keeps inspiring me and at the same time it is also too much stressful. I have spent sleepless night pondering and speculating what future would be like for me. There were questions in my mind but never did I get any answers. Hopes and dreams were built and crashed. Most obviously, I do not believe in supernatural activities or astrology or palmistry. Anything that is inexplicable by science and logic is pseudo to me. However amidst all the chaos and uncertainty, I do believe that future can be predicted with the help of science or mathematics to be precise

To start with the solution to the problem of predicting future, we need to know the factors on which our future state can probably depend. It’s true that we believe that we have the power of free will and can undo anything that is done. But on a second thought, do we really have the full control over our actions? Are our decisions and steps always independent and never biased? Or is it not what we think?

I believe, in most occasions our actions are guided by a sense of self righteousness. Then how do we decide what is right or wrong? If we think deeper then we will know that this sense of right or wrong and good or evil is a direct corollary from the family values and social norms that are a part of our upbringing. A person who feels that he/she is very random and whimsical, never guided by any principles; he/she should start wondering on what do these whims of him/her depend. I feel, on the contrary to whatever we say or ascertain, most of us cannot be categorized into the defined classes of pragmatist or whimsical or idealistic. We are rather the ones who pragmatically change our whims in into ideals! Others are just an exception to the rule a rebel and a prodigy.

More than often our decisions and actions are dependent on the state of our surroundings which includes everything from the weather conditions to the people we meet, the places we go and the situations we face. Isn’t it true that a person who is very dirty and often liters on the road gets all well behaved once he is put into a clean environment (all the Indians in foreign land)?  We would have to wear warm clothes in Australia during the summer months of India. We tend to become friendly with people who are sober and irrational with the ones who are absurd. Nature makes us behave according to its state. We may not want to accept, but there are a few choices that we actually can make. We say, “it’s something unpredictable but in the end its right”. Well, I say it’s never unpredictable. It’s always as it’s meant to be. We just dont want to know how. We love to live in ignorance waiting for the chosen one to come and rescue us and hoping for miracles to happen. Sometimes we satisfy our inquisitiveness just by accepting a fact that there are many things that we can learn even though the truth is that we have all the knowledge. It’s just that we don’t realize it. Therefore, I chose not to live in ignorance and rather make sense of all the knowledge I have.

Let’s now take the example of the most random thing whose behavior is well defined by science. A gas has all the degrees of freedom and so it’s too hard to define its motion if we take only a single molecule of gas. But we do can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy by the  kinetic theory of gases. Likewise, a proper statistical model is good enough to predict the future state of anything if we have a large amount of sample space. Perhaps it would be difficult to predict the behavior of an individual just like a single gas molecule. But, the behavior of a group of individuals can be predicted. Just as all gases follow the entropy principle, in the simmilar manner human beings also behave in a society in such a way that its best for them as well as the group.

Humans have inhabited the earth for more thousands of years and we do have very précised records of them for around a hundred years. Our sample space is large enough to design a model that can predict our behavior. Internet is filled with data which can guide us through our purpose. We have records of people along with their demographics about the things they like, places they go to, activities that they perform and choices that they make. We have data from social media, online shopping, mobile phone records, GPS records, universal identification card, business transactions, political news, social events and anything and everything that is happening around!

Let’s make an effort to interpret all these data, understand our present, make the right choices and be prepared for the future.

4 thoughts on “The future……..is it too uncertain??

  1. I don’t agree. Meant to be concept is not true. We are faced with so many different choices everyday that it would be foolish to think we can predict everything. Broader aspects like entertainment, politics etc are fields which are extensively studied and still they are to a great degree unpredictable.

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    1. something that has not been done doesnot mean that it can’t be..the approaches that has been taken are very close to generating a generic equation defining human behavior…I will keep my fingers crossed and wait for such a thing!

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      1. I am sure that no equation ever can ever predict human behavior. take one example; in a day u are faced with countless choices, what sock to wear, what food to eat, what food not to eat, and so on so forth. Do u honestly think an equation can answer all the questions. Concept of destiny is crap. Your future is in your hands. As population increases luck or probability might have some say in everything but then again it’s probability; we definitely can’t say anything for sure.

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  2. I think you dint get what I meant. I dint talk about destiny or anything. I have also clearly mentioned that predicting an individual’s character may be very difficult just like predicting the path of one single molecule of gas. But as a whole you can predict where a group is heading. To survive people have to take an approach which is benificial for themselves personally and also the group. That is what will govern the coefficients of human behavioral equation If some one acts absolutely random then he/she will have to perish. You might have a choice to choose the colour of your sweater, but you do have to buy one if its cold. You have no choice for that. You may have a choice of the kind of food you take but do you have a choice on wheather or not to have food if you are hungry?
    About the choice of your food, you, who is a non vegetarian might think one fine day to convert into vegetarian for no particular reason and after you do that you may feel that you have proved that you are very random and you can’t be predicted and so the world is as unpredictable as it can be. In that case I do accept that you are random but do you think your decision will affect the total vegetarian and non vegetarian food intaken by people in your country? Will your individual choice make any difference?? India’s percentage of total vegetarians and non vegetarians would still be the same. For a major change in the percentage to occur a huge number of people need to change their choice and for that to happen there has to be some major factors affecting their decision which of course can be predicted if we study the events taking place before such a change. Things won’t happen overnight and when major changes will happen we would be able to predict their occurance beforehand.

    It might sound scary when you think about it on an indivual level but its not something uncommon if you look from a broader angle

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