I have been exploring various betting strategies this season and feel that if done correctly, it can fetch a lot of easy money. But more often than not, people tend to miss the crucial points and lose ransom. In this post I’m going to talk about a few betting strategies (mostly from my experiments beyond hyperreality) for neophytes in this area. (Win money now and thank me later!)
Rule 1: Buoyancy – Float with stability. Use only 1-5% of the bankroll for each game.
It is really important to set aside a specific amount of money (bankroll) for betting. This is supposed to be the amount of cash that you can afford to lose. In general, you should not bet an amount more than 1-5% of your bank roll. Imagine your bank roll as a ship, and the amount that you are betting is the part below water. This part helps you to float in the market. If you have a large portion of your ship below water, then during high waves (risky bets) you are likely to lose a huge chunk of bank-roll, and may eventually sink. Anything above 1-5% of your bankroll is considered to be a risky bet.
For example, let’s assume that during this World Cup you have decided that your bankroll is $100, then you should not wager more than $1-$5 per game. Suppose you have won $10 in your 1st bet by putting $5. Your net bank roll after the bet is (100-5+10) $105. For the next bet you can wager $1.05-$5.25. If you lose, you should adjust your wager accordingly. Your heart will try to trick you, don’t listen!
You should put your bets only when you think that the bookmakers odds are set at a level in which the rewards outweigh the risks. Don’t be like our ancestor and barter your money for just any gain even if you have high chance of winning! To check whether you should bet you should always:
– Estimate the winning chance of a side- Here is an example from where you may check the probability of outcomes of games during the World Cup. There are multiple other sources, which predicts outcomes in real-time during a game. Most of them are not free!
– Get the odds from the bookmaker – Bet365, Betfair are some of the better online bookmakers.
–Multiply the percent chance of winning with the odds
If the result is 1.0 or more then you can place your bet.
Example- According to Bloomberg’s prediction, Brazil has 81% chance of winning their round of 16 game against Chile. Bet365 is providing you 1.55 times of your money. If we calculate the value of this bet:
Bet value= .81*1.55= 1.255.
Hence, you can put your money on Brazil.
Now, lets calculate the worth of risk if you put your money on Chile. Chile has 19% chance of winning and you would get 6.25 times of your money.
Therefore, Bet value= .19*6.25= 1.1875
Clearly, putting money on Chile is not a good idea. Chile does not only have lesser chance of winning, the bet value is lower compared to Brazil.
**Note: The above calculation is based entirely on Bloomberg’s prediction of the game. You might have different ways to calculate outcomes. Also, the odds provided by bookmakers change with time and so you should do the basic calculation of bet value every time you place your bet.
Rule 3 : Hedge your risks. Don’t put too much on a single outcome of a game
This is a slightly complicated concept and you should apply it only when you are betting with high risk (specifically when you are not following rule 1 and betting beyond 5% of your bank roll).
In high risk bets, it is advisable to hedge your loses(i.e diversify your bets). In this technique you are essentially trying to reduce your exposure to a particular outcome. Let’s assume that you are wagering a high amount on the outright winners for the World Cup. Below are the odds provided by Bet365:
Suppose you want to put 75%(i.e $75) of your bankroll (remember we started with $100 as bankroll) on Brazil. Since you are taking high risk here, it is advisable to hedge your risk by putting your money on multiple other teams also. You should not try to hedge by putting your money on the next favourites since the net Bet Value (see rule 2) will reduce drastically and will not give you sufficient return. Instead, you can try to hedge your risk by putting your money on the teams which are just below the next favorites. In this case it would be France and Holland. The net gain from all the 3 teams combined would be:
Net gain= 1/(1/4+1/9+1/9)=2.1176
Whereas, if you would have put your money on Argentina and Germany along with Brazil, then the net gain from all the 3 teams combined would be:
Net gain= 1/(1/4+1/5+1/5)= 1.5384
Lets revisit rule 2 and find out if the net gain is good enough to place a bet. Remember I said that any bet which has a Bet Value of 1 or more, is a good bet. For the the above 2 cases, lets calculate what should be the winning chance for the Bet Value to be 1
Bet on Brazil, France and Holland. Bet Value =1, Net gain =2.1176, Hence winning probability= 1/2.11=. 4722 (47% winning chance)
Bet on Brazil, Argentina and Germany. Bet Value= 1, Net gain=1.5384, Hence winning probability = 1/1.5484= .65 (65% winning chance)
From above, to place a hedged bet on Brazil, Argentina and Germany, you need to be more than 65% sure that either of the team will win, whereas if you place a hedged bet on Brazil, Holland and France then you can be less than 50% sure that either of these teams will win. You can make your choice!
Last word of caution, bet on a game only if you are willing to lose money. If you are scared of losing money, then you surely will!
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US$60 to US$70 billion (source: h2gc) is currently wagered on sports each year and the e-gaming sports betting market is valued at an estimated US$12.06bn in 2010 (gross win) up 10.8% on the prior year. Out of this about 20%-30% is put on Football. World Cup itself is the biggest motivator for football betting.